Victory May Hinge on Voter Turnout

GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo.?In a race that has left both President Obama and Mitt Romney with no margin for error, the result may turn on whether Barbara Burke or Paul Lopez, and thousands of people like them in every swing state, is more successful between now and Nov. 6.

Burke is a homemaker from the Denver suburb of Centennial. On a brilliant fall afternoon last week, Burke was one of more than three dozen volunteers working the phones in a Republican get-out-the-vote center.

The next afternoon, Lopez, a Denver City Council member, joined a Latinos for Obama event that packed every available inch of a Mexican restaurant in the city.

In its final stretch, the presidential race is coming down to only a few states?and a handful of key dynamics. But for each candidate, the common thread is a get-out-the-vote effort of unprecedented extent and sophistication.

While polls show momentary advantages, they all point to the same conclusion: The election is close enough that the result will rest largely with people like Burke and Lopez, the activists each side is mobilizing to increase turnout.

President Bush?s 2004 victory over Democrat John Kerry proved that in a close race, these efforts can prove decisive. Late polls that year showed the two virtually tied. But because of Bush?s massive turnout drive, Republicans unexpectedly equaled Democrats as a share of the vote.

With voters starkly polarized across age, gender, educational, and racial lines, the winner may be the candidate who can most closely match Bush?s achievement?and produce an electorate that leans slightly more in his direction. Read more

?Ron Brownstein

NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT

Poll: Romney leads Obama by One Point with 49 Percent
[The Washington Post, 10/28/12] Mitt Romney has a one-point lead over President Obama in the Washington Post/ABC election tracking poll released on Sunday, sitting at 49 percent among likely voters. The same poll shows that 50 percent of registered voters approve of the president?s job performance.

In Blue-Collar Ohio, Economic Debate is Cultural
[Los Angeles Times, 10/28/12] Both candidates are making a play for the Buckeye State?s blue-collar voters in their own ways. Obama maintains a small 50 percent to 46 percent lead in the critical swing state, according to a new CNN poll, though both campaigns remain bullish on who's up in Ohio.

In Ohio, Ryan Says Deficits Now Will Be Taxes Tomorrow
[National Journal, 10/27/12] In what he is billing as a ?closing argument? to?Ohio's voters, vice presidential candidate?Paul Ryan?is sweeping across this key battleground state to warn voters that they will be buried by taxes if Obama is reelected.

Republicans Attack Obama on Libya
[National Journal, 10/28/12] Republicans argued on Sunday that the administration?s handling of the terrorist attack in Libya that killed four Americans raises questions about Obama?s leadership and is an increasingly important campaign issue. Sen. John McCain offered one of the most scathing critiques.

Campaigns Battle over Auto Rescue
[National Journal, 10/28/12] Surrogates for both presidential campaigns were eager to celebrate the rescue of the auto industry on Sunday, but disagreed over who should get the credit and on the extent of the job growth it created.

Obama Cancels Stops in Virginia, Colorado Because of Storm
[Reuters, 10/27/12] Obama is cancelling his campaign stops in Virginia and Colorado early this week because of the storm that is heading toward the East Coast. Romney also scrapped his Sunday events in Virginia, Politico reports.

Campaigns Brace for Hurricane Sandy
[National Journal, 10/28/12] Both President Obama and Mitt Romney have had to sideline campaigning in some states due to major storms, including Hurricane Sandy. But surrogates were unsure how the storm would affect the overall turnout for the election.

Minnesota Poll: Obama Leading, But Romney Sees Gains
[Minneapolis Star Tribune, 10/28/12] A new poll shows President Obama?s lead in Minnesota has shrunk to just 3 points at 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. Obama easily won the Gopher State in 2008.

The Des Moines Register Endorses Romney
[The Des Moines Register, 10/27/12] The influential Iowa newspaper endorsed its first Republican since 1972 on Saturday, saying he offers a ?fresh economic vision." The Obama campaign tried to downplay the endorsement, while the Team Romney celebrated endorsements from all four big Iowa newspapers.

The New York Times Endorses Obama
[The New York Times, 10/27/12] The Times on Saturday endorsed Obama for reelection, saying he ?has shown a firm commitment to using government to help foster growth? and ?has formed sensible budget policies.?

Obama Targets Early Voters With New Ad
[National Journal, 10/27/12] President Obama's campaign is targeting early voters in a new 30-second ad playing in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia, reiterating four key elements of its argument against Romney.

Obama Clings to Slim Lead in Virginia
[The Washington Post, 10/27/12] The president is holding on a slender lead in Virginia, according to a new Post poll released on Saturday, leading his Republican opponent 51 percent to 47 percent. In mid-September, Obama's lead was eight points.

Despite Obama's Derision, Romney Argues for More Navy Ships
[National Journal, 10/27/12] Undeterred by Obama?s debate zinger that the military has evolved beyond ?horses and bayonets,? Romney on Saturday argued that voters shouldn?t simply brush off the GOP candidate?s argument that the Navy needs more ships.

Madonna Booed After Touting Obama at Concert
[Associated Press, 10/28/12] Madonna drew some jeers from a crowd in New Orleans on Saturday after she told audience members to vote for President Obama. ?Who?s registered to vote?? she said, adding, ?I don't care who you vote for as long as you vote for Obama.?

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/victory-may-hinge-voter-turnout-083409733--politics.html

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